A typical Nintendo major console release has a launch title -- a game that comes out within the first month or two that defines the console, does things that had never been done before, and justifies the launch of a new console. Super Mario Bros. was a totally new experience, basically creating the modern video game. Super Mario World took Mario games to a whole new level that they couldn't have reached on the NES. Super Mario 64 was almost as revolutionary and medium-defining as SMB. Wii Sports introduced a whole new way to play games and set the tone for the Wii's entire lifespan (perhaps a bit too much). Tetris was and still is the perfect handheld game. Red Alarm probably would've been the Virtual Boy's defining title, with its good use of 3D, if the whole thing had been executed better.
The DS had a launch title, but it was made by Sega -- Feel the Magic, unlike SM64DS, offered a whole new experience only possible on the DS in a way that was perfectly suited to a handheld.
The Game Boy Color and Game Boy Advance didn't really have launch titles, they just had ports. This was acceptable, as they were more updates than new platforms, and had price points in line with their predecessors. Same thing with the DSi, which not only had no launch title, it didn't even get Tetris until two years after it came out (though the DSi never should've been $170). Which is ridiculous. But tangent. The novelty of being able to play a console game on the go was enough to get the Color and Advance going, but if this is supposed to be a major console release, not just an upgrade (which it [darn] well better be if you're charging $250 for it), and if stereoscopy is such a huge game-changing feature, you need a game at launch that justifies the 3DS's existence. And there is none. And the only potential one in the pipeline seems to be the Mario game, where depth of field might help out with platforming. Other than that, all we're looking forward to is N64 and Xbox games, with occasional pop-outs thrown in.
Nintendo's problem with third parties is that they've never really had a chance to figure out how their own games and third parties' games can coexist in a post-PS1 environment, especially at launch. If Mario had been out at launch for the 3DS, nobody would have bought any other games, and a lot of compelling third party games might have gotten overlooked (if there were any). The DS was the only console where third parties chose Nintendo.
If Nintendo's strategy is to hold off their own games to give third parties a head start, it's still possible that the 3DS will slowly explode like the DS did. And it's worth remembering that Super Mario Bros. didn't come out in Japan until like two years after the NES came out. Still, if Nintendo is going to put out games at launch, they should be games that justify the console's existence. Nintendogs 2, Steel Diver, and Pilotwings, as fun as they are, are just DS games with nicer graphics, just like SM64DS was really nothing but Super Mario Advance 5. If they didn't want to overshadow third parties by putting out Mario at launch, then their launch title should've been that game idea Miyamoto was talking about where you see ghosts in one eye and not the other (Granted, that would exclude people with vision problems, but that kinda comes with the territory). Something that gives people a reason to drop $250 on a 3DS instead of getting a DS and PSP, both already with their own proven libraries, for about the same price.
Reggie said that the built-in software on the 3DS is the equivalent of Wii Sports, and while that's primarily PR talk to cover up a rushed launch, I think there could be truth in it. Maybe at this point, the best way for Nintendo to fulfill the purpose of a launch title is through built-in software (which makes sense, considering their history of including launch titles as pack-ins). I think AR Games comes the closest in that regard, and may well end up being remembered as its true launch title. So yeah, it's definitely not all doom, but they do need to watch out and step things up a bit.
And now I'm gonna stop complaining about the 3DS for a while.
(also the battery life needs to be fixed)
