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Author Topic: You predict the electoral map.  (Read 5009 times)

Luigison

  • Old Person™
« on: October 27, 2008, 04:16:19 PM »
Ever wanted to try your hand at predicting the electoral college's votes?  Nah, me neither, but now's your chance anyway.  Go to websites like the following and change the map however you want.  Reply to this thread with your votes and map.  Let's see who can get the closest to the actual results. 

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/electoral-vote-tracker.htm
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/
http://www.270towin.com/

Missouri and Florida could go either way from the polls I've seen.  From people I've talked to in Florida and results of previous elections it seems the state could go Republican, but I'm calling it for the Democrats based in part on recent polls.  (It's also mostly bordered by water if you subscribe to the "being near the ocean makes you liberal" philosophy.)  Having lived in and with family in several Southeastern states I'm calling the rest as Republican. 

In the Northeast I'm giving everything to the Democrats except for Maine which I'm splitting with three for Obama and one for McCain.

In the West I'm fairly certain Washington, Oregon, and California will go Democrat, but I think Nevada is more likely to be Republican this time.  A big turn out in Las Vegas could change that though. 

See my attached educated guess.  (332 Obama vs. 206 McCain)
“Evolution has shaped us with perceptions that allow us to survive. But part of that involves hiding from us the stuff we don’t need to know."

CrossEyed7

  • i can make this whatever i want; you're not my dad
« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2008, 08:10:20 PM »
I'm not going to go too indepth here. Ohio is in the Rust Belt, which Obama has had problems with. Florida always leans to the right; the main reason it was so close in 2000 was that Lieberman was on the ticket, and he's endorsed McCain. Pennsylvania's not as clear-cut, but between the veteran population, the Bradley Effect, and lingering Hillary support, I think McCain has a good chance of flipping it. And if he can get all three, it's pretty much over.

Colorado and Nevada could go either way. McCain has a decent chance of picking up either Wisconsin or Minnesota.

Oh, and don't ever trust polls.

I'm not going to defend any of my predictions, by the way, I'm just going to put it out there.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2008, 08:16:21 PM by CrossEyed7 »
"Oh man, I wish being a part of a Mario fan community was the most embarrassing thing about my life." - Super-Jesse

TEM

  • THE SOVIET'S MOST DANGEROUS PUZZLE.
« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2008, 08:47:45 PM »
Yes, I know, that isn't enough to win.
0000

Chupperson Weird

  • Not interested.
« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2008, 10:10:11 PM »
Well TEM wins this thread.
That was a joke.

« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2008, 04:49:22 PM »
It's not Election Day yet!

Luigison

  • Old Person™
« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2008, 05:54:37 PM »
I always thought TEM would start in Russia then take over the world with his socialist regime.  Guess that still possible with his time travel and all.  Oops.  Cat.  Bag.  Out.  Where's Schrodinger when you need him. 

Checkout http://www.santafenewmexican.com/HealthandScience/LANL_scientist_makes_radio_waves_travel_faster_than_light

Oops.  Copy/paste error, but check that out too.  Here's what I meant to post:

http://www.onevote.com/results.htm

That's a site from the Channel One news channel that many public schools show every morning so I'm guessing most of the votes are by middle/high school students.  Interesting, but not surprising. 

Also checkout for more insight into the electoral process in poll results:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com
http://www.pollster.com

CrossEyed7 is right in that you can't always trust the polls, but it's all we have to go on.  I read a statistic today that showed Obama had a 96% chance at being elected.  Of course this could change with the Bradley Effect CE7 mentioned and the reverse wagon effect, but we'll see. 
“Evolution has shaped us with perceptions that allow us to survive. But part of that involves hiding from us the stuff we don’t need to know."

Chupperson Weird

  • Not interested.
« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2008, 08:54:23 PM »
Does that hold true even with massive vote tampering which is already taking place? (I hope so)
That was a joke.

CrossEyed7

  • i can make this whatever i want; you're not my dad
« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2008, 10:48:36 PM »
You mean Acorn?
"Oh man, I wish being a part of a Mario fan community was the most embarrassing thing about my life." - Super-Jesse

Chupperson Weird

  • Not interested.
« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2008, 11:08:43 PM »
I mean the Republicans quietly de-registering Democratic voters and making early votes for Obama disappear. This is from an article at afterdowningstreet.org:
"[McCain] and his campaign and allied supporters have sought to illegally remove hundreds of thousands of voters from the rolls, fraudulently registered people as Republicans without their knowledge and against their will, obstructed voter registration drives, falsely warned students against voting where they attend school, falsely accused community groups of voter registration fraud, falsely alleged the widespread existence of voter fraud, and encouraged supporters to falsely believe McCain's opponent is a foreign terrorist through speeches, recorded phone messages, and flyers. Already in early voting in a number of states there have been cases of votes on electronic machines visibly flipping to McCain or McKinney when intended for Obama. We will see McCain supporters on November 4th challenging people's right to vote, seeking to force people to vote on provisional ballots, and seeking to have provisional ballots discarded."
This is, I believe, corroborated by the investigations of people like Ted Kennedy. I would have no trouble accepting a fair vote, but it seems this one is already skewed.

As for Acorn, I don't find any hard evidence for them actually doing anything wrong, but feel free to show me.
That was a joke.

CrossEyed7

  • i can make this whatever i want; you're not my dad
« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2008, 02:51:10 PM »
I don't find any hard evidence that these isolated incidents and electronic glitches are indicative of any kind of organized effort. There are some early ballots being thrown out on both sides. I just read the other day about a Democratic city council somewhere that was on the verge of throwing out a couple thousand ballots from soldiers in Afghanistan because of a clerical error or something. I don't care enough to look it up because the two of us convincing each other of something isn't going to affect the outcome of the election. The point is that in any large enough group, you can easily find some irresponsible idiots. Personally, I'm more worried that on election day, voter official overseer guys, who will probably support Obama, at least in my state, will broadly interpret "campaigneering" laws to kick out anyone wearing a McCain t-shirt, but that could vary from state to state. The difference is that Acorn was officially supported by Obama. I can get some internet articles too, if you'd like. Here's one.

Last I checked, people had to actually exist in order to be registered to vote. That's what Acorn did wrong. Again, I can find some internet articles if you're interested. Frankly, I'm not. I lost the energy for political debates a couple weeks ago.

If you can find proof that McCain gave $800,000 to an organization that made those voting machines not work right, then maybe there's a comparison to be made, but until then, it's just some isolated idiots.

Of course, even if it was done by the McCain campaign, that still wouldn't mean it was organized. That was a lame attempt at a joke. Because the McCain campaign is so disorganized.

people like Ted Kennedy
« Last Edit: October 30, 2008, 02:52:46 PM by CrossEyed7 »
"Oh man, I wish being a part of a Mario fan community was the most embarrassing thing about my life." - Super-Jesse

Chupperson Weird

  • Not interested.
« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2008, 03:42:49 PM »
Fair enough. Both sides are accusing each other of pretty much the same thing, though. I have to say, however, that blog entries full of words like "NObamatrons" and ideas such as Obama telling people to go around and vandalize people's property (people do things on their own, and most people are stupid) are much less credible than an article written in a straightforward manner.
That was a joke.

« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2008, 02:37:05 AM »
Congratulations, Luigison.  You beat the other person who attempted.

Luigison

  • Old Person™
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2008, 05:57:55 PM »
Thanks, but it's hard to be very proud of beating someone who was pwned by a 6-year-old girl.  Besides, TEM won, and when TEM wins, we all win! 
“Evolution has shaped us with perceptions that allow us to survive. But part of that involves hiding from us the stuff we don’t need to know."

Insane Steve

  • Professional Cynic
« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2008, 06:44:24 PM »
Indiana went blue for the first time in like 44 years

:D finally
~I.S.~

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