MATHIn the Epic Brawl bet, assume you bet $20 and assume you have a 50/50 chance of winning or losing. The expected value that you will win is (0.50 x $0) + (0.50 x $40) minus the $20 entry fee =
$0.00. This means that if you did this bet an infinite number of times, you would break even.
In the California MEGA Millions lottery, for instance,
odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 175,711,536 and it says jackpots are regularly about $100 million. The expected value that you will win is thus (1/175,711,536 = 0.000000005691 x $100,000,000) + (175,711,535/175,711,536 = 0.999999994309 x $0) minus the $1 entry fee =
-$0.43. This means that if you played an infinite number of times, you would lose 43 cents of every dollar you bought a ticket with.
MaxVance is completely correct. The lottery is incredibly risky and the bet has zero risk,
technically. Of course, you'd only be doing the bet once so you'd just have to hope for the best. However, the bet is waAAAay better than spending that $20 on the lottery, which you
will lose. If you bought 50 lottery tickets every week, you would win the jackpot about once every 5,000 years. Also, the bet is not luck and almost completely skill-based. I'd take that over a lottery even with the same odds anyday.
Playing the lottery is literally throwing your money away. Lotteries are a tax on the mathematically challenged.