E3 2011 Predictions / Wishlists

[A]

though I do kind of doubt that it's actually 6 inches.

That's what she said.

[CrossEyed7]

I'm gonna go ahead and put up this thing I wrote on a blog back in August of 2008:

I decided to share my thoughts about the rest of Nintendo's future. I call it, for lack of a decent name, the Trident Theory. This one is really more for fun than anything, and is much more likely to be coincidental, so don't take it too seriously (unless I turn out to be right, in which case you should all hail me as a prophet).



The three-pronged N64 controller is where the theory gets its name. The button side has added a few more buttons, with no revolutionary changes (N64 to Gamecube), and the pad side has remained basically the same, but a little shinier (Game Boy Color to Game Boy Advance). However, the big change here is the addition of a third side. This is the DS. Recall that the DS was referred to as "the Third Pillar" when it was first introduced. This is somewhat misleading.

While there are three handles on this N64 controller, you can only hold two of them at a time. Likewise, even though Nintendo may have three different console lines, all three cannot, and were never intended to, coexist. The DS plays Game Boy Advance games, so any new games for that system could be played on it, just like how both the control pad handle and the analog stick handle on the N64 controller have a shoulder button. If the DS was successful, there would be virtually no reason for Nintendo to continue the Game Boy Advance line; it has no effective advantage over the DS (it can play Game Boy Color games, but the consumers who want this feature are hardly a large or a growing market). If the DS failed, there would be no reason for it to continue; it has no effective advantage over the Game Boy Advance. There were only two possible outcomes: the new third line catches on and supplants the old one, or it fails and then fades away.



As it turns out, the DS, like the analog stick before it, was a rousing success, and effectively replaced the Game Boy line as the analog stick did the control pad. Notice the tiny pad beneath the stick on the Gamecube controller. This represents the Game Boy Advance slot on the DS. The Gamecube's control pad is much smaller and therefore less effective than the N64's -- like the DS's Game Boy Advance slot, which cannot play older games -- but because this feature is becoming more and more obsolete, it is mostly unnoticed. The button side is the Wii -- the C-stick could represent its motion control if you like.



So what's next? My money is on something analogous to this. See that the analog stick handle is now on its own, without the pad. The DS, or its successor, will no longer have a Game Boy Advance slot. This could either be a Game Boy micro type of thing, with more style, less function, and a sub-$100 price tag, or an upgrade, with a built-in rumble pak and tilt sensor, for $129. The pad has now moved to the button side -- which, notably, is no longer chained to the console. What does all this mean? On the surface, it may seem like the next console's controllers will have screens on them, but for a console likely to be released in 2012 or later, this hardly seems revolutionary enough to be the only improvement Nintendo makes. I don't know what to expect, but I'm leaning toward some kind of fusion of home console and portable console. By 2012, it will likely be possible to fit a console comparable to the Wii in horsepower into a box the size of a DS Lite. This console will be powerful enough to run the new Zelda when plugged into an HDTV at home, but portable enough to play Brain Age 5 wherever you go. It will be marketed primarily toward an increasingly faster-paced world, as people take more jobs to afford ever-increasing food and energy prices, and faster internet speeds make our attention spans even shorter, but it will not forget the hardcore gamers, dwindling though they may be by this time.

As for some more short-term stuff, I strongly believe [2008] will be the first year without a new Zelda game since 1999. The next one will be a revolutionary change to the format (I give about a 55% chance that it's in first person and/or in a futuristic setting), and will spend a while in incubation -- this is Nintendo we're talking about here. "A delayed game is eventually good, a bad game is bad forever." Expect the first official announcement by E3 2009 (if there is one, which I think there will be), possibly at the Tokyo Game Show this October, with a release in either late 2009 or, more likely, mid-to-late 2010. Mario Galaxy 2 should be out shortly afterward -- Holiday 2011 at the latest. Speaking of 2011, I'd expect a new Wii SKU by that time, possibly a year or two earlier. It probably won't have any major upgrades, but will instead be a compilation of all the incremental upgrades Nintendo has been making to the Wii -- WiiMotionPlus functionality built into controllers, Wii Speak built into sensor bar, and other essential hardware updates -- since consumers will start feeling very overwhelmed by then. If demand for the Wii has finally died down by then, this Wii 1.5 will likely be $250, though $230 or $200 are also possible, and if the original Wii model is still kept around, it will get a significant price drop if it hasn't already (however, it's more likely that the original model will be removed from the market to avoid confusion).

I happened to be re-reading this for some reason today, and was shocked that I actually managed to stumble on some apparently not-too-farfetched predictions three years in advance. How come Pachter gets paid for this and I don't?

[Luigison]

Insane rambling:  Seeing your images made me think.  Prior to the N64 Nintendo controllers didn't have handles.  The N64's had 3.  The GCN's had 2.  The Wii had 1.  (I'm not counting the nunchuck here because the majority of Wii players don't use it and many seeming forgot it existed.  On the other hand, the controllers have had more directional control.  N64 had 1 analog stick.  GCN had 2.  The Wii had gyros and a camera (plus the nunchuck stick and gyros).  So, the Cafe won't have any handles and will have more directional control a la gyros, analog sticks, a facing camera, and a touch screen.  (I think I should've had lunch instead of that second glass of wine.  Replace the previous "Insane" with "Drunken".)   

[CrossEyed7]

Kinda.

[Luigison]

Yeah, but I didn't include that for the same reason I didn't include the classic pro.  I was going with original controllers that are also the most used controllers. 

[Weegee]

(I think I should've had lunch instead of that second glass of wine.  Replace the previous "Insane" with "Drunken".)   

Don't worry; we're used to it.

I wonder if, in this day and age, Nintendo could sell a console with no gimmicks whatsoever. I hope the Cafe will have more in common with the SNES or GCN than it will with the Wii.

[CrossEyed7]

Well, how do you define "gimmick"? The D-pad and analog stick were gimmicks before they caught on. And if Microsoft's E3 conference was any indication, motion controls have kinda caught on a lot.

Also, their most gimmicky console by far was the DS, and it's ended up being one of the best consoles ever for hardcore gamers. Whatever that means.

[BP]

I believe I had an early DS-era pamphlet that also advertised the GameCube that basically said "the gimmick of the GameCube is that the games are better than everyone else's"

I dunno about the DS being the best anything ever. I dunno how much was on it that I can say were instant classics or among the most amazing games I've ever played. Especially not if we're looking at new, original games that started on it. Elite Beat Agents... Super Scribblenauts...

[CoconutMikeNIke]

The d-pad has been around for 30 years. Joysticks have been around since people needed to move in 3 dimensions (in a vehicle). While they took a shot with the N64 and he joystick, it wasn't really a gimmick. The Wii and DS line have been the only clear Gimmick driven devices. That said, if they decided to just make a new GCN, and let the software speak for itself, I'm totally cool with it.

Also, I'm working on a time machine so I can go back and remove the word gimmick from history.  

[Turtlekid1]

Calling CoconutMikeNIke:

I'm sending you through the time port to the United States of America in the year 1926.  There's something very special I want you to steal...

[Luigison]

http://blog.us.playstation.com/2011/06/06/watch-playstations-e3-press-conference-live/

[WarpRattler]

analog stick

joystick

These aren't the same thing.

[Turtlekid1]

New Sly game?  Ooooooh my yes

[CrossEyed7]

The d-pad has been around for 30 years.

It hadn't been around for 30 years in 1980.

Joysticks have been around since people needed to move in 3 dimensions (in a vehicle). While they took a shot with the N64 and he joystick, it wasn't really a gimmick.

Just because it was around before in some form doesn't make it not a gimmick. Jelly donuts have been around for a long time, but that doesn't mean a console made out of jelly donuts would be normal. *shrug*

My point is that Nintendo has always introduced new control stuff, and I don't really see the distinction between motion controls and their apparently more successful control ideas, especially with Sony and Microsoft spending millions of dollars on adding motion controls to outdated consoles instead of making new consoles.

Also, I'm working on a time machine so I can go back and remove the word gimmick from history.  

I was with you on that until I realized that the Teddy Ruxpin character Newton Gimmick would no longer exist. No one screws with my Teddy Ruxpin.

http://blog.us.playstation.com/2011/06/06/watch-playstations-e3-press-conference-live/

Are Microsoft and Sony's conferences always like this? Because this is the first time I've watched a significant portion of them, and I'm not really seeing why anyone other than Nintendo fans watches E3.

...Ah. For a second there, I thought Sony was going to be interesting when they started talking about a brand new first party game or something, but it's another shooter.
Oh, look, there's a Warthog. And a Transformer. Oh, and it's in space.

Do they have any not shooters? I mean seriously.

Oh, hey, they just announced another shooter.

Third parties complain that they can't sell games on Nintendo consoles because Nintendo games are too good to compete with, but they all keep putting out the same one genre of games on the other two consoles? I seriously can't tell the difference between these games. I guess part of it is because I don't have a PS3 or 360, but I'm pretty sure if I didn't have a Wii I could still tell the difference between even Mario Kart and Paper Mario.

Bioshock looks good, though.
Oh, now the Bioshock guy is talking about the time Sony convinced him to use the Move using the exact same talking points on him that Nintendo was using half a decade ago. Nice. Good job, third parties. Good show.

[Turtlekid1]

Do they have any not shooters? I mean seriously.

New Sly game?  Ooooooh my yes